SPEAKER_00 0:00

Eric, this is the episode the AI Investor Podcast listeners have been requesting for months. This is where you are going to do a full review of your million-dollar AI portfolio. We're going to start by looking at earnings and what we're seeing in the numbers, which stocks have won, which stocks have lost. We're going to take a look at the big picture and tech valuations today and what pockets are attractive and which are unattractive or overpriced. And then finally, we're going to get to the main event, which is the portfolio review and some of your top stocks today. I'm very excited about this episode. As we have said many times, this is not a political show, but we are on the eve of a pretty major political upset and the blue wave, which was promised, looks like it actually, you know, landed on shore, and there's sort of a changing of the guard in the House and the Senate. Do we talk about politics as it affects the AI portfolio or do we just jump move on to the stocks? What do you want to do here?

SPEAKER_01 0:46

Well, I think we have to. You look at the performance of the market today, and the Dow is up roughly 3%. Excuse me, SP 500 closer to 2%. And then the semiconductor index, the stocks, is down 4%. So you have a six to seven percent divergence between stocks, um, you know, the broader economy stocks, and and and what's often concentrated into kind of AI investing. So a couple things on this. Number one, the largest hyperscalers are actually seeing phenomenal returns today. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, I believe each of them was up more than 5%. And while it was consensus that there was an expectation that the Democrats would retake the Senate and the House, I think in prediction markets, it was around 80% headed into the election. I think the scale of the victory is what is providing some of this kind of outsized reaction today. You look at a place like Texas, which has something like uh 33% of data circus under construction. That could change depending on how you look at the metric. But um, the Republican governor there, who was expected to win Greg Abbott, he he lost. And there's been talk about a moratorium there. And there was, I believe, 44 ballots um on data syrus. I think 43 of them passed. Uh, only one didn't in uh North Dakota. So that kind of shows where the mood is on data sirens right now. But this has led to an extreme sell-off in stocks that provide kind of the shells and the electrification for data centers. Those are seeing the highest sell-offs. But the chips inside data centers are also seeing a sell-off. Well, we'll talk about the details more, but the concept here is that you're probably going to have a harder time building data centers, which is going to lead to less leverage for suppliers. As we've talked about on this show, one of the concerns is that if you have a slowdown, it doesn't necessarily mean that all of a sudden your semiconductor companies, because the AI market's growing 20%, they are growing 20%. A lot of them have elevated gross margins relative to what they've ever been able to capture. And if you lose that pricing power, you're going to not be able to grow earnings in line with kind of market growth. So the market as of today is reading this as basically more power to the largest companies, the Microsofts, the Amazons, because number one, they already have compute online. If if if there's a lot of demand for AI services and not much new supply, well, the companies that have existing supply, it's going to become even more valuable. And also, there's the belief priced in by the markets that this is going to lead to kind of more, you know, you'd call it pricing power from the hyperscalers themselves to push back on a lot of the um chip companies themselves. So this is this is part of a broader rotation that we've seen across the past month, but it's really providing an accelerant. The only thing I'll note um before we move on, and we'll talk a lot more about this broader theme, is that you often see really outsized moves the day after elections. I remember the day after Trump was elected, I think the S P 500 for a bit was down something close to 10%. And then it went on a significant rally in the months that followed. So I would I would be cautious about reading too much into knee-derk reactions. There's still going to be a lot to be determined. For example, the governor uh elect in Texas a lot of what they would want Dass Iris to do uh before ending a moratorium on new approvals is things that most projects are already aligned with. So it might be that you talk a little tough on it, but how it impacts actual new supply into the market is kind of overstated in that initial reaction. So um, yeah, I think that's that's kind of the big takeaways from what we saw last night and what we're seeing in the market this morning.

SPEAKER_00 4:45

Yeah, I mean, I I'm I don't think you should ever read too much into the market's first reaction and your Trump example there is a good one. This feels to me to be an overreaction. I would be surprised if the Democrats pulled back on data center build-outs as much as the market is acting like they will, because it is now, it's almost in a too big to fail moment. In fact, it is. It's too big a part of the GDP, it's too big a part of the economic growth story. Um, nonetheless, you know, lots of fireworks for whoever watched and probably some impacts on the portfolio, although let's not try and predict them here, you know, 12 hours after the election. I do wonder if something like SpaceX, which has a lot of capacity already, to your point, um, and a demonstrated ability to bring behind the meter online with, you know, just somebody who, you know, through sheer force of will can get things done and understands engines and turbines and power delivery. I wonder if SpaceX maybe their compute actually could be at a premium here, as they're more able to build out behind the meter and other standalone data centers are not. But time will tell. Time will tell. Let's um enough speculation though. I actually want to get into the numbers. We've had a lot of earnings, and we talked about some of the earnings in our last episode, but then there was additional earnings that followed. So I want to hear about air test systems in particular, one of the stocks in my portfolio. I think it was up, I don't know, 15 or 20% after earnings. So talk to me about some of the other companies that have reported since the last time we spoke and what you're seeing in their figures.

SPEAKER_01 6:10

Yeah, it's interesting because we we've once again seen uh a large sell-off. We we will see one today concentrate primarily in semiconductors and chips and and suppliers into data centers. But this is all coming at a time. Earnings continue to be very good. So I I thought it would be worthwhile just before we got into some more details, just recapping what we've seen this week. Um, as you noted, air test systems, uh, I think they were up actually closer to 30% the day after earnings. So it was quite the reaction. And what what they did was they moved guidance to the high end of their expectations, which is a $150 million this year. But more importantly, they discussed several major customer wins uh that are coming closer to large orders. So we've talked about burn-in test demand and the value proposition from a company like Air Test Systems and and how you're looking for differentiated companies, right? There's there's a lot of companies out there with exposure to the biggest trends you want, but there are some companies with um kind of a better value proposition than others. And and we've talked about advanced packaging and how complex chips are going to get in an AI world and and the test demands for that and and how an air fits into that. So this is a company that it's going to be extremely volatile. It has been extremely volatile. And and if we see a continuing market sell-off, it's likely going to be sold with that. But it's also a company that is giving us a read-through into kind of this bleeding edge of advanced packaging and and new optics applications, and they continue to win new customers. Then we see uh Lattice, which is a field uh programmable gator company, revenue grew 118%. They guided to at least 60% growth in 2027. They issued an expectation of 30% annualized growth over the next five years and a backlog well into 2028. We're also highlighting humanoid robotics as a meaningful contributor where they expect an inflection point the coming years. Eden, which is a broad electrical system supplier, we've talked about their backlog in electrical rows 46%. Uh, they their track backlog was up 59 gigawatts in the last quarter. They they discussed runway beyond 2028 into 2029. Um, so again, this is this is this is a company that issuing extremely strong results. We have advanced energy, that's going to be read-through into the data center power market, which we've talked a lot about, and also semiconductor manufacturing. They issued 34% sequential increase in their data center revenue. So that's quarter over quarter. Just in the span of one quarter, they saw 34% growth and they raised their 2027 expectations. Fabronet, another company that's in the portfolio, they saw data center revenue jump 78%, talked about expanding capacity from being able to achieve $5.8 billion in revenue with a line of sight up to $13 billion. So Austin, I went rapid fire there, but that was just all things that the market was ingesting on Tuesday. And then on Wednesday, which is today, Arista Networks said that they expect their AI growth rate next year to be 100%. Uh, AMD had a very strong quarter uh with 27% sequential growth and data centers uh growing 50% sequentially, and they expect servers to double again in 2027. Navitas, which is one of the more speculative power management plays, they talked about their AI infrastructure business expecting to triple in 2027. That's before some of the big uh drivers with 800V get started in 2028. Sterile Labs, which is a broad AI networking company, saw revenue growth of 154%, with guidance implying 27% sequential growth. And Ousta, our our little robotics company that could.

SPEAKER_00 10:08

They have a little LIDAR company that could. I'm betting on you, Ousta. I know you've been a dog for me lately, but I'm betting on you. I do like the tech.

SPEAKER_01 10:15

Well, and they are bucking the trend today. I could I could look at them as we record right here, but uh let's look. They are up uh six percent. They were up 14%.

SPEAKER_00 10:25

They were up maybe nine or 10, it looks like.

SPEAKER_01 10:27

Yeah, they were up 14% earlier. And they they talked about their Rev8 uh LIDAR growing from hundreds of units in in Q3 to tens of thousands of units in in the next upcoming years. And so Austin, I I could go on for other ones, but it's it's really interesting because we we're going to talk about the general state of the market today and what's happening. But I think when if you just looked at kind of high-level coverage, what's the headline on CNBC? After Alphabet's earnings and after uh Amazon's earnings, you will have said this is a terrible time for AI, and and it was very much framed that way. But all of the supplier companies that are now getting kind of taken to the woodshed have have had incredibly bullish earnings and and things can change really fast, and and maybe with some dynamics that are happening in the market. The next time they issue quarterly guidance, they'll they'll have taken down some expectations. But we see these companies trading for their lowest multiples in a significant amount of time. Well, across the board, they're they're talking about um a level of acceleration and expectations for 2027, uh, outlook into 2028 and beyond. Um, kind of much the same story we talked about earlier, where there is a lot of pessimism this earnings season, but the actual results continue to be stellar across the board.

SPEAKER_00 11:52

I'm curious, you know, the market is a fickle beast, right? And emotions rule as much as rationality, and we know that just from being in this for a long time, as I'm sure our listeners do. This feels like, in many ways, I feel like if these same prints occurred last year or the year before, they would have been championed and heralded. But now many of these companies are selling off. So, what do you think is behind this like discounting of the future? Is it now that people and investors were not appreciating how big the investment wave was and now they've caught up? So now they want to see current results and the future is being discounted because early in this cycle, you were very pressured and saying, look, you know, all this CapEx money is coming from effectively the hyperscalers and a couple other companies, which will funnel its way into the suppliers. Let's position ourselves there. That story continues to play out as we've talked about. The CapEx numbers continue to go up. Meta recently announced they're going to increase CapEx and every other hyperscaler so far continues to be able to push on their inexhaustible levels of cash or financing to do that. So that story is intact, which then flows down to the suppliers. So, what do you think is behind the sentiment shift here? Or is it just that investors are now getting in the show me moment where they want to see current cash flow and current earnings and they are now discounting the future growth that you know you saw a year ago. Do you have a sense?

SPEAKER_01 13:08

Yeah, let's let's walk through that because it's it's really important. It's gonna kind of determine when we look at a portfolio review and and where you'd allocate money today. We we really need to walk through this. Uh, first of all, yes, so just putting some numbers behind how bad the current momentum sell-off is. Uh, the TMT kind of momentum style box, as defined by Goldman Sachs, they have it down 62%. And that number is like a week old, so it's it's likely even worse now. You know, we could be looking at 65, 66 percent. That's actually worse than the dot com crash. It's worse than 2022, which was the other recent kind of worst time to be a tech investor. It's worse than 2008, and once again, it's worse than the dot-com. Um, there's there's some reasons you could call them logical and illogical. Uh, you know, uh logical. Um, you know, many, there is a fear that we have uh cyclical industries, things like memory reaching their peaks, um, and and people wanting to lighten exposure there, whether or not you believe that's that's right or wrong. Um, you you have that, you have capital becoming a key constraint. We're gonna dig into that with more detail. That creates headwinds and more uncertainty. We have the macro situation where not only rising rates leading to less capital available, but also leading to, again, you know, with a company like Amazon or Alphabet, the the biggest issue with their earnings was wasn't the AWS spend or their cloud spend. It was the things that are more levered to consumers like search and their e-commerce business. We also have hurting, where you had retail investors uh really chasing after bottlenecks, uh in many cases rather than more durable trends, and and you have a lot of the air coming out of that idea. And then you have less logical ideas. Uh, we have record degrossing. The amount of leverage that's been removed from the broader market in the past month is once again a historical level. We have fund blow ups over the summer. One of the key reasons that stocks had tanked so hard, specifically AI stocks, was the amount of capital that um is is often controlled by funds that specialize in AI, and and when they blow up, that removes a lot of capital very quickly. And and then we have herding, but in the other direction, which is kind of a record flight to safety. So just putting some numbers behind it. If we if we looked at semiconductors, which has been to date the primary way to kind of invest across the AI space, it's it's where most of the gains accrued, and um, it's it's where most of the growth was first seen in it. So if your glass half empty, semiconductor stocks, they're down 30% from their June high. That's gonna be even higher today, maybe more like 35% after the losses we're seeing today, and more than 20% across the past month alone. But right, the glass half full is that they're up 50% over the past year and 170% over the past five years, right? So you need to weigh both of these issues. If if you put all of your chips into the table in April, you have invested in a historically bad market. If you did it in April 2025, you're still up 100%, right? So so it just that that kind of context matters. But the bottom line is what we are seeing is semiconductors being priced more akin to what you normally see at the end of a cycle. Um, over the past seven years, they've traded a range of about 12-ish, 12 times to 30 times forward earnings. And and right now we're at the lower end there. We're at uh, depending on how you measure, maybe 13 times, 14 times forward earnings. Um semiconductors have gone from something that were very expensive a year ago to actually cheaper than the broader market. Um, and and once again, that's with the expected growth rate next year in terms of earnings for the category of 78%. So growing 78%, forward P of uh about 13x, uh, which is which is the lowest levels they've been since 2022. So it's it's just interesting because we we have seen this this flight away. And as I know, there's a lot of hurting into safety. If we look at different categories of the market, consumer staples, 90th percentile, and how expensive stocks are in terms of PE. And once again, that that measure is only going to be rising with the kind of action we see today of the Dow outperforming semiconductors by six or seven percent. Consumer discretionary, 77th percentile, industrial is 89th, healthcare, 81st percentile, utilities, 84th. So Austin, everything conservative, its PE is near the top end of the range that we've seen. The only sectors in the market that are below their range are tech, communications, which is mostly tech stocks, it's like Facebook, and then energy. So those are the only things that are below their typical PE range. So, you know, it's it's one of our listeners, Mike McMahon, he had captured it on um Twitter pretty well, and I I think he was observing this about NVIDIA, but you you look at all this data and you say this is either the fattest pitch that AI bulls have seen within the entire cycle, or the market's gonna look make make me look really stupid a year from now. And that that's that's his direct quote there. And you know, the the question is what is the market seeing? How how can we dig into this more? What is this moment that we're at? And and I think one of the big things that we need to remember is that people love to compare the AI build-out to the dot-com bust. Because I mean, we all know why, right? It's just two dominant things that kind of sucked all the oxygen out of the room and and they became the you know societally dominant trends of their era. Uh, but but they are extremely different. Because with dot-com the capacity was there, but there was never demand. We've talked about the amount of fiber that was built was like two percent of it was used during the dot-com boom, right? AI has been fundamentally different. Um it's been a continued story of supply racing to catch up with demand. Um and and that that's a very different cycle that it is demand-driven. Uh, so at the end of the day, I talked about this in the last episode, but there's there's thousands of data points out there. And whether or not AI investing is going to be very profitable over a one-year stretch or a five-year stretch is is really does come down to this demand picture, right? And and that's why I talked about when when I start looking at my kind of conviction in AI and the trade itself, I I first start with the capability of AI itself. Um, because you know, there's so much noise about picking out individual stocks. But the singular question that that is going to answer whether or not we make money on the trade is again, is AI demand going to remain high? Um so the near-term risk right now. We have we have capital risks. Uh that that's the number one uh that's the number one constraint that's happening. Austin, you probably saw the quote, but Alon Musk has he he has a way of framing things that are very striking. And and this week he predicted guppy level death for for neo clouds. I I'm sure you saw that quote. Yeah, it was it was pretty striking.

SPEAKER_00 21:00

He uh he's he's he's a perpetual walking headline generator. Um you know the this dynamic here reminds me of something you maybe going back to 2014 or 2015. Uh I was covering consumer goods stocks at the time, and I remember I don't even know what the crisis du jour was at the time, frankly, um, which probably is is gonna really underscore this point. But they started training at a premium. I think they, you know, the consumer staple sector went from like 18 times earnings up to like uh 21 and 22 or whatever. And you pay a premium for peace of mind, right? People want safety when things are uncertain. So I watched all this happen, and a lot of investors who that that we were working with at the time who had deeply respect were like this isn't this isn't gonna end well, and they were right. And if you look at the cumulative returns from 2014 to today, the consumer staple sector has underperformed the SP by more than 50%. So here's just some quick, some quick numbers just to put that into context. Uh, you know, you've got Coke and Pepsi. Since then, uh, which are sort of classically consumer staples companies up 135%, 105%, Proctor and Gamble up 155%, the XLP, which is the consumer staples sector, Spider ETF up 105%, 125%. These are decent returns. Meanwhile, the SP 500 is up 300% and the NASDAQ up substantially more. So you pay a premium for peace of mind, and that premium pays, you know, uh it hurts your portfolio the longer in the future, you know, you you you extend it out. And you said that people like to draw conclusions back to the dot-com bubble. Sure, it's natural. So let's draw another analogy, right? We've got the Leopold auction brenner portfolio blow up. A lot of people might, you know, if they were bearish on this, would have said, hey, that's the canary in the coal mine. Uh the AI trade is about to implode. Let's draw an analogy back to 1998, right? You've got long-term capital management, one of the largest, most successful hedge funds at the time, also blew up. The two years after their blowup were substantially positive. I think the market was up 23% and then like 15%. Now it eventually did implode, but if you simply held from the point that they blew up and went forward, you still had a 10% IRR every single year, nothing else happening. And that beat you know any consumer staples uh stock. So volatility is the price of admission. You pay a premium for peace of mind. We can draw all of these analogies, and people are so worried about the dot-com blowup. But I think like you and I have actually talked about many times. There's we remember the bad part of what happened in the dot-com blowup, and very not enough people do the math on what actually happened since. I've seen some numbers where if you just like bought at the peak of the dot-com blow-up in the Nasdaq and wrote it down and up, you still beat the SP 500. I'm not sure if that's literally true, but you you actually have a meaningfully positive return. There's that example with long-term capital management now. So, you know, if if you want to draw a parallel to the dot-com blowup and what happened in '99, I I get the temptation to do that. You need to be honest about, you know, how bad was it really for patient investors? And the answer was they still did really, really well. And I also don't think that this is that moment. That's just painting a worst-case scenario analogy.

SPEAKER_01 24:10

Yeah. And when we look about, okay, what are what are the practical implications of kind of this financing shutdown that Musk was warning about? Well, it's funny. I I got a few texts from people. You had probably seen that open AI, they were changing their fundraising round. They were going to previously raise $30 billion. They they took it down to targeting something closer to $20 billion with $11 billion secured. And it was, oh, okay, this is it. This is the end of the AI market. They they can't get financing. But in the week prior, we had SpaceX close on a $40 billion deal. We had a $63 billion syndication for chip purchases for Anthropic, which was backed by Broadcom. We had Meta announce plans to raise up to $97.5 billion of equity. We had Microsoft announce it would raise $25 billion in uh in in debt, I should say. So the the capital is still largely there for the largest companies. Now there is an issue that the marginal spend that's going to NeoClouds, that's going to the riskier buyers, like open AI, is closing. So that that does carry some risk, even if you do not personally own NeoClouds. And the numbers would be that the street the estimates for hyperscaler CapEx, they're somewhere around 1.2 to 1.3 trillion in 2027. You know, that is actually it has come down, and this is part of what's likely weighing on stocks across the AI spaces. We are seeing some estimates come back down, uh especially previous two uh midterms. But the NeoClouds themselves, they would contribute about $200 billion on top that $1.2 to $1.3 uh trillion dollar number. That gets us to something like $1.5 or $1.6 trillion in spend next month. But the the question is if this incremental spend um isn't isn't going to come into the AI space because again, financing is is closed. And after midterms, there's idea that building a lot of data science is going to get a lot more challenging. Well, this is what's causing a lot of pressure on semiconductor stocks. Because again, if if people were buying them for the bottleneck aspect of them, if we have slower growth, once again, that's going to mean that they have less leverage when working with companies like Amazon and with a Microsoft and these large hyperscalers that are buying. So this is this is kind of becoming the issue right now, and this is what the market's pricing in beyond things like interest rates, beyond things like macro. It is at what point is the slowdown in AI spending enough that it's going to really begin adversely impacting the economics of a lot of these suppliers. So that's that's the main question that we have today, right? That's that's what the market is ingesting. And whether or not the market is going to continue building AI at growth rates, you know, this is a near-term problem. But then we have a longer-term issue. And this is the other side, too, that the market has largely believed that 2027 is going to form somewhat of a peak. And and it's not sure if AI spending continues. Is that demand still going to be there? Because as I talked about in the last episode, coding was the story in 2026. Why we saw this ravenous amount of demand for anthropic open AI, we saw the growth rates that they had. It's because so much money was pouring into AI use for coding. So whether or not you believe that this trend is going to continue into the future is whether or not there's going to be different markets, different use cases that take the baton and keep this next wave of growth.

SPEAKER_00 27:57

I'm old enough to remember when that was the issue in 24, and people were worried if the demand would continue in 25, and then if the demand would continue in 26. Now, you know, that's not to say, you know, trees can't grow into the sky. It's not to say that there won't be bumps along the way, but this has actually been the biggest concern and criticism of AI from the beginning. And yet at every turn, the appetite for this tool and this intelligence has exceeded all bearish expectations. This is not the first time the AI industry has been faced with this uh question of whether or not the build-out and the investment can continue and whether or not the demand will be there. There are always new applications, and especially for a technology like this. And you and I are just now starting to see some of the most promising. I don't know, we've been sending some information back and forth about life sciences and some of the deep healthcare research that's been going on. Citrini had this amazing story. I don't know if anybody else saw it where they partnered with Anthropic to uh basically engineer a novel compound on a couple hundred thousand dollars of compute as non, you know, we'll say it like medical researchers, as like, you know, basically amateurs in this industry. So um I am not as concerned about this, but what else are you seeing about how this technology will be applied in ways that might increase that, you know, put salve on those concerns about demand perpetuating in 27?

SPEAKER_01 29:14

Yeah, I think one area that there's I would be in disagreement with the broader market is AI's application to knowledge work. I think there is a broad consensus that knowledge work for large companies, S P 500 companies, is going to use good enough AI models that won't require cutting edge stuff. That's that's going to lead to more demand. I think we've seen within our own business that there is always going to be demand for the highest level of intelligence, and there's always going to be a strong ROI on it. And when one of the big reasons there hasn't been the broad uptake in knowledge work is once again, agentic AI is less than a year old in terms of its broad applications, and we haven't built kind of the workflows. Right now, it takes a lot of creativity from an individual to be able to use AI to solve your use cases. I think it's going to become more and more obvious how people are able to use it, both themselves and organizations. I think you have other applications too, like research and development. You know, we look at obviously there's a lot of money that goes into research and development across the world and how transformative AI can can be in natural world applications. Uh it's it's already done that for mathematics, and I think it's going to really expand uh, you know, you think about material sciences and other areas, and and that's an absolutely massive mark. And then, like you said, things like life sciences, I don't that's one I've struggled with just because it it there's no question that it's going to be extremely capable in that domain, but you have a lot of constraints around human trials and how fast you can move in that industry. But again, I think I think that there is more than enough areas for demand to uh continue. But Austin, I'd say then, you know, and we can we can talk about stocks. I I I wanted to talk about this this broad issue before we start talking about individual stocks, because if you are someone who has AI stocks in your portfolio, the question is we'll we'll get a question that's should should I buy memory stocks today or memory stocks as a group, uh, something that looks attractive today. The broader picture is just understanding what the market is doing right now. That as far as semiconductors, memory stocks and optic stocks and many of these suppliers are all trading under the same fundamental question, which is how much does demand have to come down in 2027, whether it be through political reasons or whether it be through tightening credit markets, that a lot of these companies begin losing their pricing power, right? That that they're at peak margins right now and they're going to lose that ability. That's that's more applicable to something like memory, but it also impacts things like optics and and other chip stocks that have been really popular. So you want to almost look at your exposure to certain ideas across AI, right? And I think this is what we're gonna think about when we're recommending future stocks, right? It's it's not that I think maybe an optics company is 15% cheaper than a memory company, it's how much exposure I want to this broad concept. And do I want new markets, right? Would I rather, would I rather look towards getting more exposure to something like robotics that I've gotten a lot more optimistic about the takeoff there? Would I would I rather have more exposure to energy? Would I rather have more exposure to some software concepts? So when I'm looking at portfolio review and when people are looking at their own portfolios, just understanding the underlying drivers that are going to impact broad swaths of your portfolio. And if you're too concentrated in one single driver and that's leading to excess kind of volatility, well, then what you're going to want to do is try and diversify out topics, right?

SPEAKER_00 33:21

Okay, well stated. And you and you said the key word there, which is why our listeners are here, which is portfolio review. So after our you know, sort of industry commentary and earnings coverage, let's actually get into what you recommend people do with their money in their portfolio today, or what are you going to be doing with your portfolio? What are some of the big categories and buckets that you can put this money into of where you want to be allocated? Then let's look at compute first, right? Taiwan Semi, Broadcom, Nvidia, Intel all go in that compute bucket. There's others, right? There's you know, there's AMD, but they're not in the portfolio. Um, there's other chip companies. There we've talked about Cerebrus, we've talked about ARM. So let's talk about the compute bucket. How do you feel about that?

SPEAKER_01 34:04

Well, I think within the compute bucket and the stocks that we've recommended, you're gonna want to look at a continuum of risk and reward at the current point. Um is buying Taiwan semiconductor maybe the most opportunistic company if we see a bounce back right now? No, it's not. But also, this is a company that I don't think there's ever really a bad time to add Taiwan semiconductor. The the expectation is they'll do more than $150 billion in net profits by 2028. Uh, even with some of the headwinds maybe to Dass Higher Construction, I think, I think that's a number they're going to be around, and that's against a $1.8 trillion market cap. So uh again, this is if you've got consumer staple stocks trading at 17, 18 times their 2028 levels, or you have the most dominant technology brand in the world trading increasingly close to 10 to 11 times earnings for the exact same time. Um, that's that's definitely something that I would want to have in my portfolio. So I I feel very good about a Taiwan semiconductor. Uh they they feel like they're at attractive valuation relative to where they've been. And if it's not something that someone has in their portfolio, I would definitely begin there just because it can be such an anchor stock. Uh NVIDIA, I I could see the possibility to take some downward revisions in the next year because again, this is a company that has a little bit more exposure to neo clouds. If financing is really getting tight, um, you know, this is this is going to impact something like NVIDIA more. But again, expectations for next year are $16 in EPS. Uh if they lost seven or eight percent of their total demand due to neo-cloud financing, they're they're still trading at 13 or 14 times forward earnings. Uh, that doesn't mean that there won't be any near-term headwinds, but on a long-term time frame, it feels like a very good time still to buy an NVIDIA. I would say if we looked at a Broadcom, they're going to be more riskier than NVIDIA because they have more exposure to financing with their plans about their very large projects with companies like Anthropic. But again, trading in a similar range and and the highest risk reward of the group, Austin, and it's one that you said you had recently bought uh that just gets more attractive as it falls, is Intel. As we had noted last week, they clearly had a misstep in terms of how they allocate between the DAS AR market and PC market, but nothing changes that for this stock to be an outsize winner, it has to get foundries right. They said absolutely nothing about foundries and they lost 60% of their value. So if if if Intel is a stock that you haven't been invested in and you you want to take some kind of position in it, uh once again, I think it's getting much more attractive, and you need to be aware of the risk that it's facing. But again, this is this is a five-year play in terms of the fact that the United States is is going to have every incentive in the world to build a domestic foundry, and and very little's changed on that unless um you you have a lot less confidence in this management team. So out of that group, I would say if if you want the highest risk reward right now, that's that's Intel because they've been sold off 60%. Well, their long-term picture uh has changed very minimally in many ways. And if you want the the stock that's probably the safest one trading at a relatively uh attractive valuation right now, I would look to Taiwan semiconductor.

SPEAKER_00 37:43

Yeah, you know, speaking of Intel, it is it's it's their game to win here. I mean, as you have you discussed on many episodes in our episode last week as well, they are chronically execution challenged, but they have so much upside and potential you sort of need to bet there. That was the same story with Marvell. They were a dog for the first year or so in the portfolio before finally taking off. Uh, they're leaning into the Interconnect business. Uh, I saw with the Lumentum acquisition. Intel feels like it's similar. There's so many things that they can do as long as they execute. Uh, long-term, I don't know how we don't see a separation of the foundry business and the chip business, but you know, who who knows how long that could take. There's a lot of feelings tied up there. So uh I like Intel for the risk reward profile, but just full disclosure, it's going to be a white knuckle roller coaster ride, and you should expect that. So I did buy more. It's not a huge position in my portfolio, but if you want exposure to this space, I do like it. And I think if they can get the execution uh lined up in the same way Marvell did, it can do quite well. Uh let's look at memory, one of the biggest trades in the AI industry, uh, right after Optics. So we've got SK Heinex, Anto, ACMR, Micron. Um, how do you feel about this industry now? I think I saw Micron, you know, for all the sell-off and weakness, they were sort of weak early on. And I think they're now maybe like they've been hanging around like 950 a share for a couple months now, while a lot of other stuff has been selling off. I'm not sure if they're still there. Um, but they have they have felt a little more. Oh, I lied. They're at 800 a share. Maybe they did sell off. Sorry. Stuff has moved quite a bit. Looks like I missed the last month there. Um, okay. Well, then let's talk about the memory trade. How do you feel about this industry right now? Is this like Intel where maybe people are getting a volatile sector at a discounted price? Or were the naysayers right and cyclicality is finally going to catch up with all of the optimists and wipe them out?

SPEAKER_01 39:34

Just being like 100% full disclosure here, this is this is it's it's funny because when we recommend it, it's always interesting because you're talking about whether or not people want to own more of something or buy more of something in this point in time. And and then we're also talking about where it stood when we first recommended it. So for all these companies, it was a completely different world when we first recommended them, right? So uh a micron was $80 a share and and it's $800 a share today or whatever. I uh I would put memory and optics in an extremely close bucket to each other right now. They they have some different, they they have some differences to their profiles. Uh, you know, memory is seen as something how long can it hold on to its peak, whereas optics is seen as something that's going to be able to see substantial growth in the years ahead as it becomes a key differentiator in AI networking. But these are two industries that when you go back through time are extremely cyclical, right? It's always been memory goes through waves and the fear is when this wave is going to end. Optics is very similar. If you go back and you look at the share charts for a company like Coherent, um, when when when oversupply situations come, they can be incredibly brutal to both of these industries. So they're both trading on a similar dynamic that the market is essentially trying to arrive at some kind of number. What kind of growth rate are we going to see in 2027 and how is this going to impact that supply situation? Um, I I think just more research is going to be needed on it. But I I will say I had said personally I was lightening up my optics exposure back in June because I thought that the stocks they had just run up quite a bit. And I I just had too much optics in my portfolio, right? And for the AI investor portfolio, the question is do we have too much relative exposure to these kind of cyclical uh semiconductor spaces? We we they've been massive winners since we first recommended them. But as we move into the future phases of AI, do we want to keep exposure at the current level that we have, or do we want to reallocate to other areas? I haven't quite made a decision on that because again, there's we we we just had midterms yesterday, which is going to be an incredibly um pivotal area. I mean, it could it could be nothing and and it could be significant in terms of of how much this is going to affect the build-out. And and there is a very complex analysis to see what different levels of spend will be next year relative to the supply that's being brought on across these categories. But I will say the Marvel, uh Marvell, I should say, Lumentum buyout. I I saw a lot of people reading that as a Lumentum cashing out. Well, I I don't think that quite captures the situation. I think uh if they were cashing out, they wouldn't have done an all-stock deal. They wouldn't have joined the board for Marvell. Um, I think this is an attempt to get an incredible amount of vertical integration to compete against a company like Broadcom in the space. And and I think this is a real all-in on the fact that Marvell's management team believes interconnects are going to be one of the key growth stories of the next five years. So it seems like a fantastic deal for Marvell, a less fantastic deal for Lumentum. But if you own Lumentum, you're about to have more Marvell shares because it is an all-stock deal. Um in terms of other companies from the space that I do think are attractive relative to recent sell-offs. I recommended Semtech multiple times. It is on the more expensive end, but I really like their dynamics, their competitive position, how they work in both um copper and the optics industries, how they get a higher, how they get a higher revenue base as we continue moving faster and faster to more advanced networking speeds. And and I like their exposure to TPUs. Uh I I I mentioned earlier, we we're probably going to have a situation where if there is a slowdown in spending that is in ways caused by you know government constraints, uh, well, that that that that's going to impact a company like Google probably less. They're going to be incredibly capable about being able to work with local governments on projects. It means that. They're going to continue building because they're not going to have to go so far into debt financing. And they're going to have a runway to grow their TPU franchise for years ahead. One more stock I wanted to talk about, ACM research. It is down 50% in the past month. Just uh a parabolic move downwards. I need to do some more research on that, but they have a lot of exposure to China. The sentiment for AI in China is if you think it's bad in the United States right now, it is incredibly worse there. So this could be something that it is a temporary opportunity. It could be something that uh the situation over in China has materially gone worse. I haven't fully ingested that, but I'm going to do some more research on that. And then I think the last category that I'm just really interested across here is continuing to be advanced packaging. I talked earlier about error test systems and the validation from new customers uh beginning to do large projects uh with their test equipment, but we also have companies like Anto and Camtech. And again, in general, you I really would like to own more stocks where the the the wind is at their back. And and we just see the trends for advanced packaging to become more and more material as a percent of semiconductor spend. So if if we did see lower growth rates, I and I'm getting much more attractive valuations on the companies that are in the industries that can grow significantly faster than broad AI, I'm gonna use an opportunity like the current sell-off to kind of explore whether or not we want to continue adding there. And and if we add, whether or not we do that by selling other stocks, or we're just going to establish new positions.

SPEAKER_00 45:45

Okay, great analysis there. Let's move on to a sector we have talked about a lot, but that doesn't have an enormous position in the portfolio. It has some exposure, you're building it out, but I want to talk about robotics. You know, it's my favorite. My view of this has been this industry will be more consequential than people expect, but it will take longer than early pricing suggested. Uh valuations overall are pretty high in this space, or at least they were, and they're looking a lot better now. So you've got Allegro Microsystems, Rex or Regal Rex Nord, Ouster, which we talked about earlier. How is robotics looking today? Are we getting more favorable valuations with this sell-off? Are you thinking about expanding the robotics sleeve, or is this still a wait and see because the runway is going to be so long here?

SPEAKER_01 46:32

Yeah, as we've talked about robotics, it's always a question of how quickly is this coming? Um, you don't want to invest too early, but if you if you continue to wait until it's it's here and it's obvious, you're you're going to miss it. And the biggest thing that we wanted was better valuations on many of these companies, and we are getting better valuations on them. So when I look at where I want to deploy capital today, if the question is, are you too indexed to many of the supplier stocks relative to other trends and and concepts within AI, a good place to look today is robotics, especially if we are getting many of these companies at kind of the cheapest levels we've seen since the beginning of 2026. So I I think what I've seen robotics, we did the deep dive on it. It's it's incredibly promising. It's always been a very fragmented space, but we're seeing a lot more generalization from foundation models. Uh data scaling is very early, but promising. Also, another thing that we're seeing, the frontier models, such as GPT-6 Astra, they're they're becoming very capable at robotics, despite not being robotics foundation models, or or even we don't know the level of training that they've had on any robotics data. We've seen similar advancements from uh Google's Argon. So I I think we're now seeing multiple scaling vectors across the space. And what we're gonna have an opportunity to do for robotics is we're going to be able to look at, you know, when I recommend Regal Rex Nord, I said, well, this isn't this isn't the most high upside concept, but they have a very stable business at their foundation. So, you know, they're they're not going to have the same downside as some semiconductor company that that's relying on 100% growth and and and if it sees a big deceleration could fall 60, 70 percent. It it it dropped after we recommended it because everything across the AI space has has had terrible sentiment. But I I do think there's more of a limited downside in a concept like that. So we're gonna be able to look at some of the kind of industrials adjacent companies. We're gonna look at some companies that have more specialization in robotics. And we could also look at some companies that fit a profile more akin to ouster. You know, a lot of a lot of the more high growth concepts in robotics are 60, 70, sometimes 80% cheaper than they were. So we don't want to introduce undue risk, but it's also the most attractive time to look at them in a long time, as in many ways, robotics is at its most promising point. So I think if if we're looking at what concepts we're going to add coming up as we rebalance the portfolio and think about how we want the portfolio to reflect what the next one or two years of AI looks like, I think the amount of robotics we have will at a minimum double. Um so I think this is going to be a key focus area.

SPEAKER_00 49:36

I love to hear that. I'm very excited for those picks. Um, I want to look at one of the smallest sleeves of the portfolio, one that I have the least understanding of and I'm very confused about. So we've got the skilled labor companies, which is IES Holdings and Mcore, tickers IESC and EME. I don't understand what's happening. IES Holdings is down 17% today, MCore is down 11. Now we are filming on Wednesday the fourth. This looks to be some post-election reaction, I think. But can you explain to me why these companies are down so much? Because I'm I'm not following the pattern here.

SPEAKER_01 50:09

Yeah, this is this is definitely a reaction. Let's let me look at how much did you say they were down today?

SPEAKER_00 50:15

Uh MCore is down 11 today, and IE, well, as of the time of the filming, and IES holdings is down 16 and a half. Clearly looks to be some post-election overhang. But what's surprising is that both of these companies felt like the more sort of stable ones where you were paying a little bit of a premium, getting a higher multiple, but they were going to be less volatile than some of the other names in your portfolio. And yet, and yet they're down this much. I'm not sure I follow the king the reasoning here. So can you explain to me one, how do you feel about skilled labor companies in the portfolio overall? And then just what's going on today?

SPEAKER_01 50:51

Yeah, as you mentioned, the the hope for for them, we had recommended them when we said we thought the market was a little bit too hot. I think we'd recommend them in May, and we were concerned about where valuations were reaching. Our hope was they would have less volatility than some other options while continuing to give upside to the AI build-out. These are companies that have just generally, as a group, performed excellently across the past 10 plus years. Uh it's just been a very solid industry. They've been following a game plan of continuing to consolidate. And I'm a little confused by this pricing today as well, because as you mentioned, they this is a midterm reaction. The concept here is that there's going to be less data center starts uh with again, you know, a a Democrat winning in uh Texas and and also many of the kind of ballot initiatives that have passed. But but these companies, you you look at them, you look at the pricing dynamics in memory, right? There have been past memory cycles where memory went from 60% gross margins down to negative gross margins. And and these names are trading in a far more exaggerated way than something like memory. You look at labor supply, it's a whole heck of a lot harder to get incremental labor supply than build a new memory factory, right? You can you can increase the supply of a certain chip line 50% a year. The amount of labor supply that we have for building out data centers has been chronically undersupplied. And if our growth rate next year goes from uh 60% down to 40%, I don't think this crashes their ability to get favorable, their ability to get favorable pricing across these projects. So this looks like an extreme overreaction to me. I think Comfort Systems was also down more than 15%. Um, so you it's always hard to go and buy a company after it drops 50%. You're gonna need some confidence. Is there something that I'm missing here? But when I look at these stocks trading with similar dynamics to many other stocks in the portfolio that that have some of the most cyclical qualities to them, and it seems like a whiff from the market to me. And and that makes me more interested in potentially adding to this category.

SPEAKER_00 53:11

Yeah, definitely feels like a misread, uh, some sort of knee-jerk reaction, which will probably be hopefully unwound in the next few months because it just doesn't match my expectation of what these companies are and what they do and where they'd be positioned in the marketplace. Also, like just at a minimum, uh data, more data centers, less data centers, uh, wherever the winds blow the next few years, these are like there's universal consensus that like the grids need to be upgraded and electricity demand is going to go up. Like that there's you know, there's I don't know. I I don't get it. But let's move on to semiconductor equipment. Talk to me about if if we're seeing a lot of concern about chip manufacturing, presumably semiconductor equipment should follow suit. Again, not saying we support that view, but that's some of the views that you know people are holding in the market. So, how do you feel about that sleeve in the portfolio right now?

SPEAKER_01 54:02

I, you know, it's it's one of those things. Again, we're we're having to ingest it a podcast, it's such a poor format for this kind of discussion because it's like these deeply technical, it's almost like a spreadsheet discussion, looking at where growth rates are going to come in in the next few years. It's funny, I've talked a lot on this podcast that I I hated seeing CapEx go from eight, you know, 800 billion last year up to 1.5 trillion because I was like, it's too much growth too fast, right? It's not just the bubble aspect. I've brought up the comparison before of Apple and the level of smartphone growth versus Google, which had just kind of a consistent growth rate through search and and how that made the ride up so much less volatile. They both got to approximately the same returns, but owning Apple mid-last decade was gut-wrenching at times. I I trust a number of people listening to this podcast had owned Apple. And what we're seeing right now is that extreme growth rate for semiconductors, it is going causing this gut-wrenching thing. Is now the question is, well, are we actually not going to see the growth rate that was planned, right? And at the end of the day, it will likely be better for this industry across a five-year time frame in many ways, right? If if if we have a persistent situation of where demand continues to exceed supply for serving AI, that's going to be better across five years. But in the near term, there are some just brutal reactions to it. One of them is in semiconductor equipment. Uh, Austin, I want to go back and see where this stock traded one second when we talked about ultra-clean holdings. This is one that we have had listeners ask us about. It's a semiconductor equipment player. They make subsystems that that go to much larger customers. We had been asked about, I said, I like it. It's an extremely solid business. It's just too expensive. Well, I'm looking at right now, it's down 70% from where traded in June. Uh, it traded for more than $150. Well, $144 per share. Now it's down to $14 or $44 per share. What we're looking at is a stock that's now trading for about 7x its 2027 earnings. And with semiconductor equipment, what you never want, again, is this this crash. Semiconductor equipment's been an extremely fabulous category. We've talked about before on the show. If you go back the past 15 years, three of the top performing stocks were in semiconductor equipment, yet no one could name them, right? They are the furthest thing from household names. And what semiconductor equipment would want along a five-year time frame is a more consistent climb. They they do not want these excesses. They do not want a situation where they are having way too much supply relative to the industry. They would like this climb. So I think for a company like Ultra Clean Holdings, I mean, it it might be that we see how this situation is developing is actually better for the stock across a multi-year timeframe. But in the current environment, it is getting sold off radically, down to, again, seven times 2027 earnings. And maybe those earnings estimates come down a little bit, but it's it's still extremely cheap, multiple. So I'm just weighing right now. I was going to recommend this stock today. I was going to add it, and and and I decided I'd hold off. We'll do a little bit more of a we'll do a little bit more of a new recommendations episode next week. But just with what's going on with the market today and how volatile it was, I want to take a little bit more time to think about how we wanted to package up some different recommendations. But again, it it just illustrates how cheap some of these concepts have gotten that we were talking about it. We were talking about it in June. And again, I said it was an excellent company, it was just too expensive. What is the downside that we're seeing today? Is is the downside, we just need to bring it back to that original question I was asked about. Is the downside that AI itself is fundamentally broken? Is the downside that we are not going to see demand for AI? Um, as of right now, those things seem relatively in place. The biggest issue is just whether or not we are going to see a lower growth rate next year, largely from some external factors. Number one, financing, number two, the political situation, which is increasing this week. Nothing's changed for the core concept, though, that if AI, if the actual systems behind AI, the foundation models continue improving at their current rate, we are going to have a situation where there's more demand than supply. So whether that not that's a 60% growth rate versus a 50% in 2027, leading to maybe a 25% growth rate in 2028 instead of a 20%. These are moving around, but the long-term picture isn't necessarily changing a whole lot here. So if you're able to get leading stocks across the space for a 70% discount, well, I I am going to want to make that move, right? And and maybe, maybe we will see. We we have gotten a little overly concentrated in some of the cyclicals, um, and and we want to reduce our exposure there just for the sake of building a more resilient portfolio without volatility. But it it just some of these semiconductor companies, semiconductor equipment companies, they they show just how much the markets change for companies that I do believe are still fundamentally about as good as they are today when they're trading for uh 70% more back in June.

SPEAKER_00 59:54

Yeah, there is absolute, there are absolutely some fantastic opportunities in the market. As I mentioned in the last episode, and I think you and I can probably both speak to. Um, we've been doing some shopping the last week, and I'm sure there will be more positions added or you know adjusted in the AI portfolio based on some of these categories that you've talked about. So the opportunities today on a valuation basis are much better than what we saw six months ago, but in many cases, the trends behind them are still holding, right? That this the same dynamic held that pushed them to those initial valuations. So although I don't love seeing my portfolio in the red, I do love the opportunities that we're being presented with in some of these spaces today. Um, Eric, any parting thoughts for our listeners here? You talked about a lot of categories. Thank you. I know this is not easy. You know, to our listeners, I know Eric has to spend an incredible amount of time going through each of these sectors to understand the tidal patterns and where trends are moving. So you threw a lot out there. You've got compute, memory, optics, robotics, skilled labor, semiconductor. We touched on other things as well. Is there any other like parting thoughts you want our listeners to hear today as they're you know looking at their portfolio, experiencing more uh losses than they probably have over the last few years? I won't say volatility because volatility is both directions, but maybe experiencing some unusual losses. What would you say to our listeners?

SPEAKER_01 1:01:09

Um, you know, I I would just say it it is it is always very hard. Uh I there's been times where the market dropped and we came on and I was just like, I am so excited right now. I am so excited. This this one is this is very brutal. This has been since we started the show. It's it's up there with Deep Seek was a real kind of gut check moment. Um, the tariff tantrum was kind of uh a gut check moment, and it forces you to go back and revisit your priors and and say, are you missing something? I I think I I probably when I filmed the last episode, I was probably a little too blasé, or I didn't touch on enough some of the downstream implications of financing, right? It it's it's easy to say, well, that's mostly going to hit this group of neo-cloud companies. It's it's harder to work out how it flows through the entire system and whether or not it's right or wrong, why the market is looking at that and ingesting how it's valuing other companies that are a couple steps away. And and then across the past week, I've I've been able to put more of those connections together. But in an extremely dynamic markets, the other side is it's it's it's when it means the most to sharpen your pencil and go through and look at everything. So, you know, I probably spent 20 hours going through and looking through the portfolio and trying to understand why stocks are moving the way that they are and it what I'm potentially missing. And and I think the next step again is is trying to make sure that the portfolio is going to properly reflect where we think the opportunities are across the next one to two years. And if that involves some selling, you know, we'll be ready to do that. If if it involves buying, we're we're certainly going to buy some more stuff and and try and be opportunistic about this moment. But you know, the bottom line, Austin, as I've said before, spending all this time looking at AI, I really do think it comes down to the one singular question. That is, is demand going to stay elevated in 2027, 2028? And it that will flow from the capability of AI. If that happens, I I think staying the course is going to be richly rewarded. And and from everything that I've seen, I haven't seen command in the past three months as you know, we've really seen stuff go haywire. I haven't seen that core issue of the models and the capability of AI go off any kind of trend line that was on previously. So, you know, that that heartens me. And uh we we will come back next week. We will have some of those additional recommendations. But I just want to also thank everyone. You know, if you are watching today, we understand how hard this is. This is not fun, right? Uh, the amount of text I get from people about AI has probably down about 90% right now. There's there's just very few people interested in it. So staying engaged right now, it's not easy, but we we appreciate everyone being on this journey because uh as we've said from the beginning, we believe 10 years from now you'll look back and say, why wasn't it obvious that I did that? Of course, AI was going to be the next big thing. Of course, it created these $20 trillion companies and and had this impact on the economy. But doing it in the moment and going through this process is just two different things. And and that's why we create the podcast, because even even the greatest investments of all time, an Amazon fell 90%, and it fell 60%, it fell 40%. It's NVIDIA has been a complete roller coaster at times. So it's never as easy as it looks, it's never as easy as the 30,000% return you see on a uh piece of marketing copy. Uh it's very hard. And um we appreciate everyone. And also, we would if anyone has any comments, if if they want us to cover anything, I didn't see as many last week, which I was kind of surprised from since we haven't posted, but we are we are happy to answer questions. Uh I know it's not as fun as when stocks are going to the moon every single day, but uh we will we will do our best because we we do want this to be a community where people are able to discuss what's going on across AI stocks. So if you are a listener and and want to put any thoughts out there, want us to look at any additional stocks or concepts, just let us know.

SPEAKER_00 1:05:38

Yes. Uh Eric, thank you so much for that sentiment. Um let's let let's end on that note. I just wanted to add one thing because you had brought up Amazon, I thought it was a really good dovetail here. Um, this is an impossibly hard uh investing is very, very challenging. And most people don't appreciate. I think that the majority of stocks actually underperform the index, but by getting the few major winners, you can carry the day in a portfolio and dramatically outperform. So we feel the pain right there next to you, and we're not we're not here to be Pollyanish or just universally positive. I'm looking at my portfolio today, and I've got Allegro Microsoft Microsystems, IES Holdings, Onto Innovation, Power Systems or Power Solutions, Regal Rex, Nord, Mcore, all of them are down over 30%. Other ones that are not in the portfolio, Axon, um, Ad Yen, um, Netflix, these are all positions for me that are down a similar amount. And yet, if you add up the losses for all of those, they are dwarfed by the gains of one single position, which is Amazon. So that's not to say we should be out there, you know, we should be happy about our losses. We know they don't feel good. Um, but the lesson here is that you should expect in any portfolio where you're taking sufficient risk that there's going to be a lot of losers, but you don't need a lot of winners to make them completely forgotten memories and footnotes in an overall um stupendous portfolio return. So not easy, dear listeners. We know we, you know, we're right there with you. Uh, our our money is being eviscerated, same as yours if you bought these positions, but we are still believers in this trend. And uh, I think both of our portfolios long term show the value of looking through the storm clouds and you know the sort of benefits that you can achieve over longer horizons. All right, Eric, let's put a pin in it at that note. Uh, dear listeners, thank you so much for your time. Please leave us your comments or questions, and we will see you next week.